International fish trade can also be analyzed based on the income levels of countries, according to World Bank criteria. This organization classifies countries according to their gross national income (GNI) per capita for 2023. The groups are as follows: low-income countries, with $1,145 or less; lower-middle-income countries, with incomes from that threshold up to $4,515; upper-middle-income countries, up to $14,005; and high-income countries, with incomes exceeding $14,005.

In 2020/2022, 50.5% of the value and 47.2% of the volume of exports originated from high-income countries. It is clear that high-income countries have lost their dominance in these exports over time, as they accounted for 67.6% of the value and 65.7% of the volume of global exports in 1990/1992. The opposite trend is observed in middle-income countries (notably China and India), which contributed only 30% of the value and 29.7% of the volume of FP exports in 1990/1992, rising to 49% and 52%, respectively, in 2020/2022, reflecting structural transformations in fishery exports trade over the past 30 years.

Similarly, high-income countries have slightly reduced their relative importance in global imports, from 91.3% to 89.6% in value and from 75.9% to 56.9% in total volumes between 1990/1992 and 2020/2022, respectively. In contrast, middle-income countries have increased their relevance, representing 10% of the total value of imports in 2020/2022 compared to 8.3% in 1990/1992, and significantly increasing their share of the trade volume, rising from 20.8% in 1990/1992 to 41.6% in 2020/2022. This highlights another significant transformation in global fishery trade, influenced by changes in several aspects including income levels, population growth, and degrees of urbanization, which have driven higher FP consumption in developing economies.

Thus, international fishery trade is and continues being a key driver of sectoral growth, supported by a process of globalization that has been on the rise. This trend has only recently begun to face challenges due to geopolitical reasons, making it difficult to predict how events will unfold in the coming decades, subject also to the facts and ideas discussed in the following paragraphs.

A LOOK INTO THE NEAR FUTURE

The latest FAO/OECD forecasts for 2032 indicate that fish production and international trade of FP will continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace than observed in recent years. Landings of animal-based species are expected to reach approximately 205 million tons by then, with 111 million tons from aquaculture and 94 million tons from capture fisheries. Between 2022 and 2032, fisheries are projected to grow by about 3%, while aquaculture will see a 17% increase. According to SOFIA 2024 projections, FAO estimates that aquaculture will account for 54% of total aquatic animal landings by 2032 (55% in 2033, compared to 51% in 2021-2023) and 60% of fish products intended for human consumption, which by then should reach about 184 million tons (186 million tons estimated for 2033), or roughly 90% of primary production. Asia is anticipated to contribute 77% of the production growth between 2024 and 2033.

Per capita fish consumption is projected to reach 21.3 kilograms in 2032 and 21.4 kilograms in 2033, driven by increased incomes, urbanization, technological advancements along the production chain, and higher education levels, among other factors. However, Africa’s per capita consumption is expected to decline to 9.3 kilograms by 2033—where fish products are crucial for local nutritional needs—and declines are also anticipated in Europe. Conversely, the highest growth rates will occur in Asia, building on its already high standards. By 2033, 83% of fishmeal and 70% of fish oil are projected to be used in aquaculture feed.

In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), meat consumption could increase by 3.3 kilograms per capita to reach 52 kilograms by 2033, surpassing the world average by 80%. This growth will mainly result from increased poultry and pork consumption, projected to grow at CAGRs of 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, while beef consumption is expected to decline moderately. In turn, LAC per capita fish consumption—among the lowest globally—is expected to grow only by 0.3% annually.

Fish exports will also continue to rise, accounting for 34% of landings by 2032, compared to 38% in 2022. Additionally, real prices of fish and aquaculture products (expressed in U$ dollars of the same year) are projected to decrease by 15% and 11%, respectively, by 2033, though nominal prices will increase. These declines are mainly attributed to competition with other meats, particularly poultry, whose prices are expected to fall by 20% by 2033 due to higher production levels.

The European Union, the United States, China, and Japan will remain being the leading global importers of fish products by 2033, jointly accounting for 50% of this trade, a slight decrease from 52% in 2021-2023.

Production Challenges

The global figures outlined above remain attractive for the sector but already raise concerns about the slowdown in the virtuous growth patterns observed in recent decades. They are characterized by showing that extractive fishing levels have not grown significantly in over 30 years, while aquaculture remains being a very dynamic activity, even if faced with increasing challenges related to governance, environmental issues and sustainability, raising questions about whether past successes can be replicated in the near future.

Wild fisheries can improve their performance through better global management practices. Other contributing factors could include utilizing bycatch discards, improving post-harvest practices, and controlling illegal and indiscriminate fishing.

As well, overall supplies can also increase if losses along production and marketing chains are diminished, as currently they have been estimated to include about 30% of landed products .[1] Overestimate

Aquaculture, which already dominates and will continue doing so in fish production, faces questionable governance in many regions. This affects the speed and cost of securing farming concessions, with adequate durations and guarantees suitable for business needs. It also contends with growing conflicts over marine and inland water space and use, while the State usually lacks trained personnel to undertake its responsibilities as needed. Moreover, overregulation often imposes excessive costs and hinders agility in decision-making processes, and there is a trend to overvalue regulatory functions and norms, while long-term and adequate leadership, strategies and policies are poorly handled.

Small- and medium-scale aquaculture face high costs and difficulties in entering and sustaining operations legally. Organizational, marketing, and technical management issues are also present and require necessary and urgent state support, which often fails to arrive on time or adequately, leading to frustration among producers and society at large. In parallel, small-scale producers often lack the techniques to produce efficiently, competitively and sustainably, limiting sales opportunities beyond their organizational and marketing challenges. In parallel, small-scale producers often lack the techniques to produce efficiently, competitively and sustainably, limiting sales opportunities beyond their organizational and marketing challenges.

Particularly in the past 10–15 years, technological advancements have revolutionized aquaculture, with the emergence of land-based recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) and offshore high-energy marine farming systems. These technologies are progressively facilitating the relocating of medium- and large-scale aquaculture operations to land (RAS systems) or open seas (offshore farming), leaving more coastal and inland waters to family or artisanal farmers who will dominate these areas in the medium and long term.

Efforts are also underway to diversify aquaculture by incorporating more species, particularly native ones, into local farming practices.

Despite advancements in environmental management within aquaculture, unresolved environmental, social, and economic issues persist, alongside new risks associated with climate change. These challenges, combined with activist opposition, indigenous rights demands, and the industry’s encroachment into traditional cultural areas, often tarnish the sector’s reputation and hinder the political support needed for sustainable growth.

Commercial Challenges

Trade also presents challenges, including competition from other meats like poultry and pork, tariff and non-tariff barriers, lobbying, financial resources, taxation, and currency and social policies. These factors plus certain degrees of saturation in various markets may threaten fishing and aquaculture development in certain countries, either through import "invasions" or an inability to organize production schemes for competitive exports. Consumer demands, economic growth, income levels, and perceptions of fish products continually affect demand and, consequently, supply. In aquaculture and other food production, long-term investment planning and systematic technological innovation are essential to meet all of these challenges.

Additionally, sustainable fish supply growth depends on promoting consumption by offering well-handled, uniform, predictable quality products throughout the year, with traceability and convenient processing, portioning and packaging to meet the needs of increasingly demanding consumers. Campaigns promoting fish consumption must be systematic and sustained rather than short-term and opportunistic. Here consumer’s education should start in childhood and continue throughout their life. In this respect it is sad to note that ‘opportunistic’ and short-term campaigns are often undertaken to boost consumption, being far from achieving sustainable objectives, as those can mainly be met through the requirements just exposed, with a better organized and competitive industry offering convenience products to a population that has to be convinced of the benefits of fish products and make use of the great variety of products available.

Expanding international fish trade requires not only deepening knowledge and sales in developed countries but also creatively tapping into emerging markets. The shift in global fish consumption and trade from high-income countries to middle- and low-income countries presents challenges but also opportunities for sectoral commerce. Industry will therefore have to become accustomed to new commercial circumstances, practices and conditions, perhaps associated with contracts of smaller volumes, shorter periods of time and new commercial practices.

Finally, the organized and competitive nature of poultry and pork industries—offering availability, predictability, standardization, and competitive pricing—poses a significant challenge to fish and aquaculture products. While the sector boasts a diverse product range, much of its production and trade still rely on a relatively small number of species. Greater technological and market efforts are needed to incorporate other species, deepen existing markets or open new ones.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the challenges, figures suggest continued opportunities for growth in fish farming and international trade in the near future, albeit at slower rates than before up to at least 2033. This panorama requires new long and medium-term strategies from both governments and producers to foster better governance and competitiveness. Supporting small-scale producers with organizational, commercial, and technological assistance while addressing environmental, social, and economic issues is as well essential. For medium and large industries, continuous innovation processes are necessary to maintain global competitiveness.

While the future remains promising, the slowdown in production and trade should serve as a warning to reevaluate how the sector produces, improves efficiency across value chains, and markets its valuable products, and calls the attention on the fact that reinforced and purposeful leaderships and better governance are essential tools to support further and successful production and trade sectoral developments.

[1] SOFIA 2024, Spanish version, page 211